In 2016, Democrats nominated 173 candidates to take on Republican incumbents in the House of Representatives while Republicans chose 102 people to take on Democratic incumbents. Ignoring open seats (as well as California and the other states with top-two nominating systems), I plotted the kinds of districts where these nominations took place to contrast where military veterans were nominated versus nonveterans.
Parties differed in where veterans emerged from the primaries. The 26 Republican veteran candidates ran in races that were 5% more competitive than Republican nonveterans, while the Democrats nominated 34 veterans in places that were more red than the Dem nonveterans.
This says that both parties are nominating a lot of military veterans, but Republicans do so in more competitive districts (at least in 2016) than the Democrats do.
This seems a bit odd, given that Democrats have very recently signaled that they hope to nominate veterans and highlight them as a theme.
It’s not the first time Democrats have signaled the importance of veteran candidacies. In 2006, Democrats nominated even more Democrats to run than 2016, the “Fighting Dems,” but they mostly lost–largely because they ran in districts where Democrats had little hope of prevailing, irrespective of the quality of the candidate.
As a kid who went to college on the GI Bill and later a college professor who deals with veterans as students today, I’m glad to see specific attention to issues with how vets in college are treated by college administrators and faculty. I’ve heard of situations where professors did not accept national guard duty as an excused absence and other nonsense. I suppose one reason for shortcomings in how colleges deal with veterans is that there are few of them among faculty and college administration. So, I am pleased to see a national student affairs administrators’ association holding an annual symposium on improving support for students with military experience. Link to the call.
An OIF veteran with experience in the Obama White House, Dan Feehan, wants Minnesota’s 1st district to remain represented by a Democrat and by a veteran. Its current representative, Tim Walz, decided to run for the Governor’s mansion instead of reelection. Trump carried MN-1, just as similar areas of rural Wisconsin and Michigan went for Trump to tilt the Electoral College his way. I know a little bit about Walz. In 2012, I published a short piece in Armed Forces & Society that exploited a campaign advertisement Walz ran in his first House election in 2006. (I edited out the bits pertaining to his military experience to make two versions and varied the treatment to find out how potential voters perceive political candidates’ military service.) It’s obviously early, and Feehan is currently one of five Democrats seeking the nomination to win a district that could be an uphill climb for Dems in 2018.
In a report that reads a bit too closely to her Wikipedia page in the Hill Country News, Mary Jennings Hegar has thrown her hat in the ring for a House seat. She isn’t the only Democrat in the race, but I predict she’ll earn more ink given her military background, heroics that led to the medals, and the fact that Hollywood is making a movie about her story.
Tough district for a Dem pickup, though. The Democrats who have tried have not cracked 40%, and one year did not nominate a candidate. It’s something like a minus 12 for Cook, with a majority white population that Romney and Trump easily carried. I however suspect John Rice Carter, the incumbent, will be more nervous this cycle than he has been with his past challengers.
I pass along (forgive duplication) notice of a call for papers with regard to a future special issue of Journal of Veterans Studies. They seek to explore issues related to transgender policies and issues, especially in comparison to changes to politics and policies about homosexuals serving openly in the armed forces since the 1990s. Check it out.
Seth Moulton (D MA-6) led Marines on four tours in Iraq despite being personally against the war, and some have speculated that he is a prospect for the Democrats’ big dance in 2020. Maybe. What makes him interesting now are his calls for changes in his party’s leadership in the House. He’s not the only person critiquing Nancy Pelosi in the wake of special election losses of course (races in which we always risk overinferring the political winds), but keep an eye on how he uses his time as a Marine as part of his rhetoric about the need for responsibility for the election losses. I track the way political elites employ their service to communicate political messages, and Moulton’s explicit language helps him telegraph his rivalry with Pelosi at the same time that he reminds potential voters of his time in Iraq. (Photo credit)
A potential challenger to Paul Ryan in WI-1 (which Trump carried 53-42) is emerging in the news and his name is Randy Bryce. His recent long-form ad is making a lot of noise on social media, and so is his facial hair (check out his Twitter handle). His campaign website’s biography discusses his time in the US Army, and media descriptions rarely fail to add a inset comma-ed “…, and Army Veteran,…” to a biographical sentence. However, it’s a long shot (and he’s no stranger to losing elections), while his ad and mustache have made more headlines than his military service record. Hard to know, also, how much attention he would garner if he sought to unseat someone other than the Speaker of the House.
Beijing has invited Ivanka and Jared, and the way Chinese social media treats them, I’m not surprised. I lived in Taiwan for over a year, and one of my continuing interests was the fluidity of translating English idioms, technology, and proper nouns into Mandarin. My IR colleague down the hall who studies Sino-American relations has been telling me about how the Chinese on the mainland see the Trumps–in particular how their names (and nicknames) are translated, and they are more flattering than John Oliver was last year. There is a spare literalness that informs the rules of bringing English into Chinese, so Ivanka is typically “nu shen,” or “goddess.” Who didn’t get treated quite so well? Poor Kelleyanne Conway. The Secret Service call her “blueberry,” but in Chinese social media, she’s Kang Wei, or “healthy, leathery hide.”
It is not surprising that left-leaning organization VoteVets is finding ways to criticize President Trump, such as their using the image from Twitter showing Trump has blocked their account. I’m interested specifically in the traction they will get when firing up the Robert Mueller vs. Trump contrast by invoking Mueller’s service in the US Marine Corps after he finished at NYU.
Trump’s educational and medical draft deferments during the Vietnam War did not reverberate as an issue as recent presidential and vice-presidential candidates’ problems with service-related questions had (e.g. Clinton, Quayle, Bush 43).
It’s always risky to look ahead this far out for 2018, but the Carolina second district, where the Republican incumbent George Holding has a not-quite-competitive district (which is considered an opportunity for Democrats for North Carolina), at GOP +7. Hoping to win the bid to unseat him is Wendy Ella May, a transgender candidate who has made VA issues one of her key campaign themes. What does the crystal ball suggest? May is not the first transgender veteran to run of course. Last cycle Kristin Beck, the author of Princess Warrior, a transgender former Navy Seal, attempted to defeat longtime incumbent Steny Hoyer in MD-5 in the primaries. She made headlines, but the context of the race with Hoyer’s powerful incumbency means we should not use the race as a barometer for the political viability of transgender veterans–Democratic groups that might support a candidate like Beck are not likely to endorse against the Democratic Whip no matter who else is on the ballot.