It’s always risky to look ahead this far out for 2018, but the Carolina second district, where the Republican incumbent George Holding has a not-quite-competitive district (which is considered an opportunity for Democrats for North Carolina), at GOP +7. Hoping to win the bid to unseat him is Wendy Ella May, a transgender candidate who has made VA issues one of her key campaign themes. What does the crystal ball suggest? May is not the first transgender veteran to run of course. Last cycle Kristin Beck, the author of Princess Warrior, a transgender former Navy Seal, attempted to defeat longtime incumbent Steny Hoyer in MD-5 in the primaries. She made headlines, but the context of the race with Hoyer’s powerful incumbency means we should not use the race as a barometer for the political viability of transgender veterans–Democratic groups that might support a candidate like Beck are not likely to endorse against the Democratic Whip no matter who else is on the ballot.